Tuesday, December 16, 2008

AIG Is Doing What it Said

As the only blogger that is remotely sympathetic to AIG, based on today's announcement, they have completed most of what they said they were going to do 3 weeks ago. They have taken huge losses on mortgage related assets over the last 4 quarters and moved the assets to government credit facilities. The writedowns give the government a decent chance of coming out whole or somewhat better.
In summary, AIG had two big mortgage related problems, that were only distantly related.  In their life insurance unit, they lent securities and invested the money in mortgage related securities.  They borrowed $19.8 billion for this credit facility to buy $39.8 billion face value mortgage related securities.  In total, the government put up $49.8 billion to buy mortgage related securities with a face value of $111 billion.  AIG is now done and won't have to deal with additional write offs on these securities.  

Based on their November presentation, the total new bail out consists of the following:

The credit facilities that have a shot at profitability.
$40 billion in preferred stock.
$60 billion loan.
Support for commercial paper program not unique to AIG.

As of November, a big chunk of the $60 billion loan hadn't been drawn.

The way I would think of this is that the insurance businesses are worth more then book value if the balance sheets have been cleaned up.  As soon as a business is sold, the sale generates cash AND it means that the remaining businesses need less capital.  So I'm thinking the government has a decent shot at coming out even or better.  

1 comment:

Sahil Singh Gujral said...

But does a corrupt dealer corrupt absolutely? Why would you believe almost any financially reported number from these folks ever again? They have managed to deceive much of the public (and many of themselves) about nearly everything. -SSG