Call Options

A stock can be decomposed into simple vectors, a scalar, Strike Price, and an expiration date. Call Option: A vector that begins at the strike price, ends at the termnal price, and extends upward until expiration. Put Option: A vector that begins at the strike price, ends at the termnal price, and extends downward until expiration. It's value is -price. Strike Price: A scalar representing the starting price of the options. Stock=Call+Strike(Cash)-Put Often referred to as Put/Call Parity. Most important: Stock+Put=Call+Cash.

And There's More .....

The FRBNY announced more sales on June 18th.

In addition, they announced (finally) that all the Maiden Lane loans (including ML I) had been fully repaid with interest.

It now seems likely that AIG will receive at least their $5 billion principal investment and $600 million interest by early july.

The current pace of sales, if it continues, will work through the remaining securities in a matter of weeks. 

My current guess is that AIG will have $7 billion in cash available for an early July purchase of Treasury shares. 

Additional Maiden Lane III Sales

On 5 June, 2012, the FRBNY announced that they were accepting bids for about $7 billion face value in CDO's.

Combined with the previous announced CDO sales, the cash from this offering should go a long way towards repaying AIG's $5 billion equity position in Maiden Lane III.

This is entirely consistent with my 26 May posting regarding sources of cash.

Below are the remaining holdings:

ILFC - The Basics

AIG has been reporting ILFC as if it were a stand alone entity in anticipation of an IPO.

Financial statements are available on its investor relations web page.

AIG has taken almost $3.5 billion in impairment charges over the last two years (roughly 10% of the book value of the fleet).

Selected Financial Data from 2011 10k:

General observations:

The revenue is reasonably stable.

AIG was too aggressive with respect to depreciation, leading to the impairment charges in 2010 and 2011.

AIG has reduced unsecured debt by almost 50% and total debt by roughly 20%.

There is no compelling reason for AIG to be in this business, and their decision to sell makes sense. The only issues are how soon and how much.

AIG - Sources of Cash

This is not particularly subtle or controversial. The only 'news' is that I am predicting that AIG will recover the principal from the ML III sooner than some may expect.  AIA is fairly certain regarding timing and amount -- the $7 billion based on current market prices.  ILFC is the least certain regarding both amount and timing. All the figures are intended to be conservative with respect to amount.

Strictly from these sources, AIG would be able to buy about a quarter of its shares at $29/share by September 4th of this year using only the $12.6 billion.

My personal guess is that AIG is more likely to buy at least half of the Treasury stake of 1.08 billion shares, with the rest sold in a public offering by early September. This would assume that the financial markets stabilize by then. Under more difficult financial conditions, this process will take longer.

Sources/Assumptions:

1. ML III - See earlier posts.
2. AIA - based on AIG ownership of 18.6%, Market Cap of 300 billion HKD, and an exchange rate of 7.76.
3. ILFC value selected based on book value (7,630,639 @ March 2012)
  @

Maiden Lane III - What's Left

The FRBNY releases a list of assets, including their face value, on a quarterly basis. The Marcy 31 listing is the current release. The list includes a very brief description, the CUSIP, and the face value of the security.

Assets currently include High Grade CDO's, Mezzanine CDO's, and a residual collection of debt securities where were primarily acquired as a result of the breakup of CDO's and subsequent distribution of assets.

At March 31:

CDO's                     $45,590
Misc                        $     817
Total                       $46,407

Subsequently, FRBNY has either sold or is offering for sale a significant number of CDO's.

Excluding those CDO's, at March 31 valuations, the face values were:

CDO's                     $33,584

Misc                        $     817

Total                       $34,401

The estimated fair value of these securities is $11,617. 

 

Without putting too fine a point on it, the larger CDO holdings contain a smattering of 2004 vintage as well as 2005 and 2006. 

It also seems reasonable that the FRBNY can continue selling CDO's and generate $5 to $6 billion in cash sales relatively quickly. this would allow AIG to recover its original stake of $5 billion plus accrued interest.  

With respect to providing AIG with cash to participate in Treasury sales of its stock, the timing of asset sales and distribution of proceeds may be more important that variances the ultimate cash sales of the portfolio. 

Maiden Lane III - 18 May 2012

Federal Reserve Balances show the Maiden Lane loan balance has dropped from $7,962 to $2,768, as it looks like the FRBNY received cash from the MAX CDO sales and applied it to the loan balance.

Bids for the sale of $1.7 billion face value Duke Funding CDO's has been delayed, pending distribution of more information by FRBNY.

However, bids for the sale of $691 million of Putnam CDO's are still due on Tuesday 22 May, 2012.

The Treasury announced the delay as follows:

May 18, 2012
The New York Fed decided to postpone its auction of ML III's holdings in the Duke CDO after it became aware that there was additional information concerning the Duke CDO that had not been made available to the bidders.  The New York Fed's auction of ML III's positions in the Putnum CDO is proceeding as announced on May 11.

If the net sales price on the roughly $4.9 billion of securities sales which have not yet been either announced (TRIAXX) or completed (Duke Funding, Putnam), is in the low 70% range, this should be enough to fully pay down the principal and accrued interest on the FRBNY loan:

As far as the assumption that the cash sales prices will be close to $3.5 billion, the TRIAXX CDO's were recorded at 31 December 2011 at a fair value of about 71% of face value. Given that the press releases have commented favorable on pricing, it does not seem unreasonable to assume that the final results will be around 70% or more. 

Payment of the Principal and Accrued Interest on the FRBNY loan will provide the basis for a nice headline when they are finally announced. 

Of note is that the estimated AIG recovery from Maiden Lane III or $7.6 billion is 16% of AIG's market cap @ $28/share (closing price on the NYSE, 18 May is $28.33). Although there is an argument for focusing on variances in results in the ongoing businesses, assets for sale, including stakes in AIA and the Aircraft Leasing business make up over 40% of AIG's current market value and are subject to material fluctuations which may be positive.