Still, it is useful to know whether our estimates are consistent with what has been found by others. Two studies released within the last few weeks essentially bracketed the supervisory estimate. The International Monetary Fund estimated lifetime losses that would imply a loan loss rate for U.S. banking firms of about 8 percent in a stressed scenario. One of the major rating agencies estimated an annual loan loss rate of about 4-3/4 percent in a stress scenario for the next two years. More broadly, our informal survey of the results of a considerable number of private-sector studies and analyst reports published over the past several months generally placed our projected loss rates for key portfolios near the midpoints of the ranges of these independent estimates.
Yuliy Sannikov has won the Clark Award
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